Interpreting the NOPE: A Brief User’s Guide

I’ll keep it short, and also post a TL;DR on NOPE:

- Using high/low NOPE you can see:

  1. The intersection of the lines probably don’t mean anything. — It’s not a well scaled graph, and it’s clear the Y axis is very different between NOPE, NOPE_MAD, and SPY price. Please don’t apply TA like golden crosses; it’s likely complete noise.
  2. Why did the black line stop? — This is running on a literal shoestring budget, because it’s literally against our morals to try to charge for this. Right now I think the website is running at like -$150/mo, but thankfully our team can afford it. That said, our infra and data connections ain’t good, plus it’s a side job/project, so sometimes shit breaks.

Interpreting the NOPE

Let’s segment this question for using it on SPY into two time periods:

Intraday

I want to start this off with the following warning: we have evidence of intraday behavior observed til about 9–8–2020 (when we started collecting the data) but no data past that. We have not statistically validated our intraday usage, but anecdotally/observation wise it seems to be quite useful.

Next day (and beyond)

Here’s where it gets more interesting, and I do have data. In fact, I have SPY end of day data versus NOPE since about 2007. It unfortunately calculates NOPE at 3:45 PM EST, but this probably makes the results look weaker than they are, not stronger (so I’d expect it to be more correct in the real world).

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